Saturday, July 25, 2009

I listened to CNBC again

While channel-surfing last night I lingered for a moment on CNBC, more out of curiosity more than anything else.

There was a panel of four Investment Advisers being interviewed. Based on various lines of reasoning, three of them were bearish and one was bullish. Each had some pretty reasonable reasons, as far as I could tell, so the net result was inconclusive.

But why was I even watching? No possible good can come of it. Worst-case, (depending on how much someone cares about the money) it can easily create confusion and uncertainty, or even evoke a fight-or-flight reaction depending on the stress level. This kind of thing is usually fatal to successful investing.

I had to take a step back and remind myself once again just to stick to what I know, and to try not to get distracted. And toward that end, I think the market is very bullish right now.

The various stock indexes have been breaking out from consolidation patterns (i.e., basing patterns, cup-and-handles and the like) to new highs, or highs not seen in quite a while. For example, here's an interesting chart of RTM, which is one of the Rydex S&P funds. Green marks an all-time high (based on available data), and blue and red are proprietary signals designed to catch lows and highs with amazing accuracy.

How about that buy signal (in blue, right at the low)? Looks about perfect to me. Somebody asked the other day if the signals were pasted in after the fact. I take this to mean the presentation could use some work. He was missing the whole point of the GigaScanner, which is to generate time-tested statistically-significant signals with a strong predictive value in real-time, as they happen.

Also, here's the link again for the article about reading the stock market with ETFs. It's about to fall off the bottom of the page.

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