Saturday, July 25, 2009
I listened to CNBC again
While channel-surfing last night I lingered for a moment on CNBC, more out of curiosity more than anything else.
There was a panel of four Investment Advisers being interviewed. Based on various lines of reasoning, three of them were bearish and one was bullish. Each had some pretty reasonable reasons, as far as I could tell, so the net result was inconclusive.
But why was I even watching? No possible good can come of it. Worst-case, (depending on how much someone cares about the money) it can easily create confusion and uncertainty, or even evoke a fight-or-flight reaction depending on the stress level. This kind of thing is usually fatal to successful investing.
I had to take a step back and remind myself once again just to stick to what I know, and to try not to get distracted. And toward that end, I think the market is very bullish right now.
The various stock indexes have been breaking out from consolidation patterns (i.e., basing patterns, cup-and-handles and the like) to new highs, or highs not seen in quite a while. For example, here's an interesting chart of RTM, which is one of the Rydex S&P funds. Green marks an all-time high (based on available data), and blue and red are proprietary signals designed to catch lows and highs with amazing accuracy.
How about that buy signal (in blue, right at the low)? Looks about perfect to me. Somebody asked the other day if the signals were pasted in after the fact. I take this to mean the presentation could use some work. He was missing the whole point of the GigaScanner, which is to generate time-tested statistically-significant signals with a strong predictive value in real-time, as they happen.
Also, here's the link again for the article about reading the stock market with ETFs. It's about to fall off the bottom of the page.
There was a panel of four Investment Advisers being interviewed. Based on various lines of reasoning, three of them were bearish and one was bullish. Each had some pretty reasonable reasons, as far as I could tell, so the net result was inconclusive.
But why was I even watching? No possible good can come of it. Worst-case, (depending on how much someone cares about the money) it can easily create confusion and uncertainty, or even evoke a fight-or-flight reaction depending on the stress level. This kind of thing is usually fatal to successful investing.
I had to take a step back and remind myself once again just to stick to what I know, and to try not to get distracted. And toward that end, I think the market is very bullish right now.
The various stock indexes have been breaking out from consolidation patterns (i.e., basing patterns, cup-and-handles and the like) to new highs, or highs not seen in quite a while. For example, here's an interesting chart of RTM, which is one of the Rydex S&P funds. Green marks an all-time high (based on available data), and blue and red are proprietary signals designed to catch lows and highs with amazing accuracy.
How about that buy signal (in blue, right at the low)? Looks about perfect to me. Somebody asked the other day if the signals were pasted in after the fact. I take this to mean the presentation could use some work. He was missing the whole point of the GigaScanner, which is to generate time-tested statistically-significant signals with a strong predictive value in real-time, as they happen.
Also, here's the link again for the article about reading the stock market with ETFs. It's about to fall off the bottom of the page.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Back in the Saddle Again
Very happy to report we're back up and running again. The database issues have been resolved, and the GigaScanner is back to the prompt, snappy action we're accustomed to.
The bullish trend appears to have resumed, as described below, so if I get a chance later I'll look for some stock picks.
Also... I wanted to emphasize once again the critical importance of trading in sync with the overall stock market trend. If you're in a short trade right now you'll probably know what I mean.
The bullish trend appears to have resumed, as described below, so if I get a chance later I'll look for some stock picks.
Also... I wanted to emphasize once again the critical importance of trading in sync with the overall stock market trend. If you're in a short trade right now you'll probably know what I mean.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Holy Grail?
Sorry, but I just have to post this chart of PEET. Red for down, blue for up. It's pretty cool.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Market Swings, etc.
Market-wise, I think it's been a choppy consolidation for the past few weeks, but it's not a bear swing. I believe this because the breakout from a bottom in the Short Russell 2000 ETF has failed. Also because I was about to give up and turn bearish. I've been watching too much CNBC, that doesn't help either. Therefore I predict we're taking another bullish swing.
Stock-wise, I was flipping around at random and noticed some fresh-looking stocks starting to emerge. Also some old leaders like STEC (just about the hottest stock in the market) are resuming their uptrends. Sorry no time to post a picture of STEC. You can pull it up from the stock scanner page.
Stock-wise, I was flipping around at random and noticed some fresh-looking stocks starting to emerge. Also some old leaders like STEC (just about the hottest stock in the market) are resuming their uptrends. Sorry no time to post a picture of STEC. You can pull it up from the stock scanner page.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Signals in ETFs Reveal the Broad Market Direction
Keeping in sync with the the overall market trend is the pillar to successful stock-trading, because over 90% of individual stocks are ultimately going to follow the market direction. This is regardless of the company, it's earnings, or even what technical analysis of an individual stock chart may be saying. It's a statistic that can't be denied.
How do we see what's going on in the stock market? One excellent source of insight is the so-called "ETFs", which are Exchange-Traded mutual Fund designed to mimic the performance (or with some ETFs it's the inverse performance) of a designated market index, such as the Russell 3000, or of a sector such as "semiconductors".
Here's a special article with illustrated examples.
How do we see what's going on in the stock market? One excellent source of insight is the so-called "ETFs", which are Exchange-Traded mutual Fund designed to mimic the performance (or with some ETFs it's the inverse performance) of a designated market index, such as the Russell 3000, or of a sector such as "semiconductors".
Here's a special article with illustrated examples.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Tuesday Morning
I wanted to mention, there was a Climax Low buy signal yesterday in the Russell 3000 ETF. This index has been giving us some really accurate signals lately, but they've been very short-term in nature as the market chops around. Here's a link to the so-called Quick stock screener where the Russell ETF is the default stock chart.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Market Status, and some Stock Picks
The short Russell 3000 had the breakout from a small cup-and-handle bottom, but then it broke down a couple days later. By now it's returned to about the middle of the cup, price-wise. The basing process continues.
Meanwhile, in the long market indexes we had a buy signal, and then a sell signal a few days later, and then the market got whacked.
So what's going on? Keep in mind that the Climax High and Low signals can mark a long-term top or bottom to the exact day, but they can also be very short term. So the best way to tell what's going on is by looking at individual leading stocks, and by that measure the bull is definitely still intact, recent whack notwithstanding.
Leading stocks like SNX and PEGA are doing well, for example, with solid RS rankings and Accumulation / Distribution percentages, and nice looking patterns.
To get a slightly different take on it, we ran a screen of all stocks, sorted by Accumulation / Distribution percentage, with a limit of 20 symbols. No worry about EPS ranking - in our experience this matters very little compared with a powerful price and volume trend. Also we make no attempt to screen for price. Generally the lower-priced issues are more risky, but they can also produce the more spectacular gains.
From there we hand-selected some interesting symbols into a Symbols List so we can follow them over the next few weeks. Here are links to the charts, with Climax Low flags in cyan, Pristine up signals in purple, and Wm. O'Neil's Follow-through day flags shown in yellow.
GERN
CAEI
OSK
TWB
Meanwhile, in the long market indexes we had a buy signal, and then a sell signal a few days later, and then the market got whacked.
So what's going on? Keep in mind that the Climax High and Low signals can mark a long-term top or bottom to the exact day, but they can also be very short term. So the best way to tell what's going on is by looking at individual leading stocks, and by that measure the bull is definitely still intact, recent whack notwithstanding.
Leading stocks like SNX and PEGA are doing well, for example, with solid RS rankings and Accumulation / Distribution percentages, and nice looking patterns.
To get a slightly different take on it, we ran a screen of all stocks, sorted by Accumulation / Distribution percentage, with a limit of 20 symbols. No worry about EPS ranking - in our experience this matters very little compared with a powerful price and volume trend. Also we make no attempt to screen for price. Generally the lower-priced issues are more risky, but they can also produce the more spectacular gains.
From there we hand-selected some interesting symbols into a Symbols List so we can follow them over the next few weeks. Here are links to the charts, with Climax Low flags in cyan, Pristine up signals in purple, and Wm. O'Neil's Follow-through day flags shown in yellow.
GERN
CAEI
OSK
TWB
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Sell signal comes true
Well, just a few days after that buy signal, on June 29th to be exact, there came another sell signal. It took the form of a Climax High in the Russell 3000 Ishares, symbol IWV. See it here: chart of Russell 3000 ETF
We've been using the Russell 3000 to represent the broad market. It seems to work extremely well for this purpose, throwing off some great signals of late.
It's the default chart in the so-called "quick" stock screener interface. Actually, I'm not quite sure what to do with this page. It seems somehow more comprehend-able at first glance, but isn't near as powerful in the end, as the "deluxe" screener interface. If anybody has any bright ideas please let me know..
We've been using the Russell 3000 to represent the broad market. It seems to work extremely well for this purpose, throwing off some great signals of late.
It's the default chart in the so-called "quick" stock screener interface. Actually, I'm not quite sure what to do with this page. It seems somehow more comprehend-able at first glance, but isn't near as powerful in the end, as the "deluxe" screener interface. If anybody has any bright ideas please let me know..
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