Friday, January 29, 2010
Trying too hard
Regarding that last post, you have to wonder why I'd go looking for buy signals at a time like this. Here's a repeat of our post from Monday, January 18th (the chart was current as of that date):
A number of stocks sold off on high volume Friday. A more serious correction may be in order, considering that the market has made a spectacular run since the lows last March.
This is not incompatible with a possible bounce tomorrow.
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq with the latest signals. The Climax High a few days ago lead to a quick drop, then a retest of the high, and then Friday it got hammered. Monday's data is a repeat of Friday's, since the markets were closed. Unfortunately the volume data has dropped out again for the Nasdaq. It does that from time to time. Still no good explanation from our data vendor. But trading volume was up sharply across the market.
A number of stocks sold off on high volume Friday. A more serious correction may be in order, considering that the market has made a spectacular run since the lows last March.
This is not incompatible with a possible bounce tomorrow.
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq with the latest signals. The Climax High a few days ago lead to a quick drop, then a retest of the high, and then Friday it got hammered. Monday's data is a repeat of Friday's, since the markets were closed. Unfortunately the volume data has dropped out again for the Nasdaq. It does that from time to time. Still no good explanation from our data vendor. But trading volume was up sharply across the market.
Another look
Well, I looked at a bunch of stocks again and now I'm thinking the market will bounce, and it will happen today. There was a pulse of buy signals on Wednesday, most of which failed, but some of yesterday's signals are just too compelling. These stocks I figure will foreshadow a broader bounce.
Stocks like COHR, PEZ, and AIR for example.
Stocks like COHR, PEZ, and AIR for example.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Flushing needed
There was somewhat of a pulse in the number of Climax Lows yesterday but I didn't want to mention it. Sure enough, the bounce off the support line in the Nasdaq lasted exactly one day.
So... somebody should leave me a comment! How am I ever going to get on CNBC, much less get the web site to pay for itself. Let me know you're out there!
So... somebody should leave me a comment! How am I ever going to get on CNBC, much less get the web site to pay for itself. Let me know you're out there!
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Nasdaq sitting on support
The Nasdaq has pulled back just to the former breakout point and is going up this morning. But how will it close? Where's the wave of buy signals?
Here's a fresh chart. I drew in the support line:
Here's a fresh chart. I drew in the support line:
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Oversold bounce?
Here's another look at Flowserve (symbol FSV). Last time we noticed was run up, and that a correction was due. At that point the market still looked good, but within a few days it became clear FLS was indicative of the bigger picture. First there was the Climax High in the Nasdaq, and then a down day on a sharp increase in volume. And very shortly after that we had the mini-crash. Sad but true.
The chart also shows the daily numbers of Stocks Down >= 3 Consecutive Days plotted as a breadth indicator. It's in the second indicator window, plotted in magenta. When it spikes up above the baseline, as it has yesterday and today, an oversold bounce is usually imminent - although not always. Sometimes it will remain elevated for a few days, and subside more slowly, as happened during the recent bear market.
Notwithstanding Flowserve a number of stocks have been relatively unafected, either pulling back to breakout points without breaking down, or otherwise forming constructive basing patterns (accumulation / distribution remaining over 50%). So a bounce is within range on this basis too.
The chart also shows the daily numbers of Stocks Down >= 3 Consecutive Days plotted as a breadth indicator. It's in the second indicator window, plotted in magenta. When it spikes up above the baseline, as it has yesterday and today, an oversold bounce is usually imminent - although not always. Sometimes it will remain elevated for a few days, and subside more slowly, as happened during the recent bear market.
Notwithstanding Flowserve a number of stocks have been relatively unafected, either pulling back to breakout points without breaking down, or otherwise forming constructive basing patterns (accumulation / distribution remaining over 50%). So a bounce is within range on this basis too.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Crash!
The possible bounce on Monday came true, and then the market sold off for the rest of the week. They should interview me on CNBC. Every one of the analystis they had last week was bullish, which only served to strengthen my contrary opinion.
A bounce will happen eventually, possibly even on Monday (again), but for the moment it's going straight down. At some point we'll get another wave of buy signals. Meanwhile, here's a chart of the Dow Jones Industial Average. The Climax High sell signals are shown in red:
A bounce will happen eventually, possibly even on Monday (again), but for the moment it's going straight down. At some point we'll get another wave of buy signals. Meanwhile, here's a chart of the Dow Jones Industial Average. The Climax High sell signals are shown in red:
Monday, January 18, 2010
Possibly something more serious
A number of stocks sold off on high volume Friday. A more serious correction may be in order, considering that the market has made a spectacular run since the lows last March.
This is not incompatible with a possible bounce tomorrow.
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq with the latest signals. The Climax High a few days ago lead to a quick drop, then a retest of the high, and then Friday it got hammered. Monday's data is a repeat of Friday's, since the markets were closed. Unfortunately the volume data has dropped out again for the Nasdaq. It does that from time to time. Still no good explanation from our data vendor. But trading volume was up sharply across the market.
This is not incompatible with a possible bounce tomorrow.
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq with the latest signals. The Climax High a few days ago lead to a quick drop, then a retest of the high, and then Friday it got hammered. Monday's data is a repeat of Friday's, since the markets were closed. Unfortunately the volume data has dropped out again for the Nasdaq. It does that from time to time. Still no good explanation from our data vendor. But trading volume was up sharply across the market.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Latest
Well, by now a number of stocks are getting a bit run-up. The chart of Flowserve is a great example. There was a Climax Low signal a few days ago, and a sharp run-up on good volume. But by now it's run up to a previous high. A correction is due.
The red and blue indicators at the top of the chart show the daily numbers of Climax High and Climax Low signals. There is a certain rhythm to it. We've seen a pickup in the number of Climax Highs recently as the market has consolidated, although so far it's refused to go down. With any luck we should have another wave of Climax Low signals soon. Or at least a little pulse. Things are so strong that this may be all we get.
The red and blue indicators at the top of the chart show the daily numbers of Climax High and Climax Low signals. There is a certain rhythm to it. We've seen a pickup in the number of Climax Highs recently as the market has consolidated, although so far it's refused to go down. With any luck we should have another wave of Climax Low signals soon. Or at least a little pulse. Things are so strong that this may be all we get.
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